What is a “trend”?
According to Visser and Gagnon (2005), the term “trend” refers to the statistically observable change or general orientation of a general movement (Visser & Gagnon, 2005; Karataş et al,2016). And these changes would have impacts within the field or wider environment (Wilson, 2012).
What is happening in a global context?
One of the trends that both US National Intelligence Council’s (2017) “Global trends: The paradox of progress” and KMPG International’s (2014) “Future State 2030” point out is technology advancement is accelerating and affecting every aspect of society. In education, it is reflected by the ubiquitous presence of digital technologies integrated into the learning and teaching space.
Why do you need to know about this?
In the era of globalisation, your professional context is no longer confined within the boundaries of a local community. Over the last decade, technology has moved so swiftly that teachers are increasingly connected across a variety of platforms and in a variety of settings.
21st century learners are digital device and platform users. Their learning goes beyond passive receipt of knowledge towards actively seeking knowledge and their learning extends beyond the classroom walls to the digital learning environment. These changes in learning behaviour are a global phenomenon and not confined to a specific country or region. It is within this interconnected world that your context of practice needs to be able to respond to changes in technology and new educational paradigms.Understanding global contemporary trends will help you see the bigger picture your practice is situated within and the trajectory your practice should be heading toward.
THIS WEEK’S ASSESSMENT ACTIVITY
Activity 3: Trend influencing education in New Zealand or internationallyCreate a blog post where you first analyse one trend that is influencing or shaping NZ or international education that you find most relevant to your practice.Then, critique and evaluate practice in the context of different audiences (local, national and/or international) and their perspectives.Following these 3 steps may help:
Step 1: Identify one trend that is most relevant to your practice:Read one or more of the following resources:
Page 6-28 of US National Intelligence Council’s (2017) “Global trends: The Paradox of Progress”
Page 14-21 of OECD’s Trends Shaping Education 2016
Or other resources in the related media and/ or from your own search
Use these following questions to guide your thoughts:
What trend captivates your attention? Why?
What is the relevancy the trend have to your practice?
Step 2: Analyse the trend:
Once you have identified the trend you aim to investigate more, locate the relevant part in the aforementioned materials that discuss more depth about the trend. Or search for other supporting resources.Use these following questions to guide your thoughts:
What the statistical data or resource tell about the identified trend?
How do or would the identified trend influence the education system?
Or come up with your own questions.
Step 3: Critique and evaluate practice in the context of different audiences (local, national and/or international) and their perspectives.Understanding the impact of the trend on the education, you now should examine how your local community OR NZ education system OR other international education systems respond to the trend. Use these following questions to guide your thoughts:
What responsibility do education systems have in teaching students about the potential changes and challenges the trend would bring?
How might the curriculum be delivered to equip the students with adequate competencies to cope with or adapt to the trend?
Or come up with your own questions.
Notes:
KPMG Australia. (2014, May 22). Future State 2030 - Global Megatrends.[video file]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im5SwtapHl8
KPMG Australia. (2014, May 22). Future State 2030 - Global Megatrends.[video file]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im5SwtapHl8
Adams Becker, S., Freeman, A., Giesinger Hall, C., Cummins, M.,and Yuhnke, B. (2016). NMC/CoSN Horizon Report: 2016 K-12Edition. Austin, Texas: The New Media Consortium. Retrieved from http://cdn.nmc.org/media/2016-nmc-cosn-horizon-report-k12-EN.pdf
National Intelligence Council. (2017). Global trends: The Paradox of Progress. National Intelligence Council: US. Retrieved from https://www.dni.gov/files/images/globalTrends/documents/GT-Main-Report.pdf
The rich are aging, the poor are not.
Working-age populations are shrinking in wealthy countries, China, and Russia but growing in developing, poorer countries, particularly in Africa and South Asia, increasing economic, employment, urbanization, and welfare pressures and spurring migration. Training and continuing education will be crucial in developed and developing countries alike.
The global economy is shifting.
Weak economic growth will persist in the near term. Major economies will confront shrinking workforces and diminishing productivity gains while recovering from the 2008-09 financial crisis with high debt, weak demand, and doubts about globalization. China will attempt to shift to a consumer-driven economy from its longstanding export and investment focus. Lower growth will threaten poverty reduction in developing countries.
Technology is accelerating progress but causing discontinuities.
Rapid technological advancements will increase the pace of change and create new opportunities but will aggravate divisions between winners and losers. Automation and artificial intelligence threaten to change industries faster than economies can adjust, potentially displacing workers and limiting the usual route for poor countries to develop. Biotechnologies such as genome editing will revolutionize medicine and other fields, while sharpening moral differences.
Ideas and Identities are driving a wave of exclusion.
Growing global connectivity amid weak growth will increase tensions within and between societies. Populism will increase on the right and the left, threatening liberalism. Some leaders will use nationalism to shore up control. Religious influence will be increasingly consequential and more authoritative than many governments. Nearly all countries will see economic forces boost women’s status and leadership roles, but backlash also will occur.
Governing is getting harder.
Publics will demand governments deliver security and prosperity, but flat revenues, distrust, polarization, and a growing list of emerging issues will hamper government performance. Technology will expand the range of players who can block or circumvent political action. Managing global issues will become harder as actors multiply—to include NGOs, corporations, and empowered individuals—resulting in more ad hoc, fewer encompassing efforts.
The nature of conflict is changing.
The risk of conflict will increase due to diverging interests among major powers, an expanding terror threat, continued instability in weak states, and the spread of lethal, disruptive technologies. Disrupting societies will become more common, with long-range precision weapons, cyber, and robotic systems to target infrastructure from afar, and more accessible technology to create weapons of mass destruction.
Climate change, environment, and health issues will demand attention.
A range of global hazards pose imminent and longer-term threats that will require collective action to address—even as cooperation becomes harder. More extreme weather, water and soil stress, and food insecurity will disrupt societies. Sea-level rise, ocean acidification, glacial melt, and pollution will change living patterns. Tensions over climate change will grow. Increased travel and poor health infrastructure will make infectious diseases harder to manage.
The Bottomline
These trends will converge at an unprecedented pace to make governing and cooperation harder and to change the nature of power—fundamentally altering the global landscape. Economic, technological and security trends, especially, will expand the number of states, organizations, and individuals able to act in consequential ways. Within states, political order will remain elusive and tensions high until societies and governments renegotiate their expectations of one another. Between states, the post-Cold War, unipolar moment has passed and the post-1945 rules based international order may be fading too. Some major powers and regional aggressors will seek to assert interests through force but will find results fleeting as they discover traditional, material forms of power less able to secure and sustain outcomes in a context of proliferating veto players.
OECD. (2016) Trends Shaping Education 2016, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2016-en (this publication can be read online by following its DOI’s hyperlink)
OECD (2016) discusses how trends are an extremely important part of education as it informs our idea the future holds and helps us better understand the changing face of education. It is said that looking at trends is not a science as trends that were once important may not be important in the future. Rather it is a way of broadening our horizons. They look at five different trends; globalisation, the future of nation-state, are cities the new countries, family matters, and a brave new world.
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